As the 2024 election season slowly gains momentum, the spotlight is currently shining on an unexpected battleground: the race for governor in Kentucky. The contest between Democratic incumbent Gov. Andy Beshear and Republican state Attorney General Daniel Cameron has already become a microcosm of the larger themes that both parties are gearing up to champion in the upcoming presidential campaign.
The parallels between the Kentucky governor’s race and the 2024 presidential matchup are uncanny. With both candidates locked in a neck-and-neck battle, Beshear’s focus on promoting an optimistic economic message faces a barrage of culture war attacks unleashed by Cameron. The outcome of this race could serve as a foreshadowing of the messages and strategies that will define the presidential campaigns.
Even before the candidates meet face-to-face at the annual Fancy Farm picnic, the airwaves have been inundated with campaign ads. A whopping $11 million has been spent on TV ads by both parties combined, providing a glimpse into the narratives that will echo across the nation in the coming year.
Here are five pivotal questions that the Kentucky governor’s race could answer about the 2024 general election:
1. Can Democrats Successfully Sell an Economic Message?
President Joe Biden’s attempts to convey a positive economic outlook, despite a slowing inflation rate and steady growth, have largely fallen flat. With approval ratings on the economy hovering at a mere 38 percent, the president’s “Bidenomics” has failed to resonate with voters.
In stark contrast, Gov. Beshear’s high job approval ratings paint a different picture. His focus on job creation and bipartisanship has struck a chord with Kentuckians, earning him a commendable 64 percent approval rating. His success in delivering an economic argument could provide valuable insights for Democrats struggling to convey their message on a national scale.
2. Can Republicans Ride the Anti-“Woke” Wave to Victory?
The Republican playbook against the incumbent governor is notably centered around attacking “woke” culture. Their TV ads, laden with references to the “liberal, transgender agenda,” aim to erode Beshear’s standing. The success of this approach could be pivotal for Republicans, demonstrating whether this narrative has the potential to resonate even in more competitive areas.
3. How Much Ground Have Democrats Lost in Rural Areas?
Beshear’s impressive victory in 2019 was fueled, in part, by his strength in rural counties — a feat Democrats are struggling to replicate at the national level. Despite Kentucky’s conservative lean, Beshear managed to carry counties that President Biden ultimately lost by significant margins in 2020. Whether Democrats can regain ground in rural America remains a crucial question.
4. Is Abortion an Issue That Helps Republicans?
In a deeply conservative state like Kentucky, one might assume that Republicans could capitalize on anti-abortion sentiment. However, this election suggests a different narrative. Despite Kentucky’s narrow divide on abortion (as evidenced by a 52-48 vote against a ballot initiative protecting abortion rights), the issue has taken a back seat in the campaign against Beshear.
5. What Lies Ahead for the Candidates’ Political Futures?
A victory for Beshear could propel him onto the national stage as a red-state bridge builder for a party seeking a resurgence in rural America. On the other hand, Cameron’s potential victory could set him on a different trajectory, with a shot at a Senate seat if he isn’t tied up in a gubernatorial role.
The Kentucky governor’s race may seem confined to a single state, but its implications ripple far beyond state lines. As voters and political analysts dissect every move and message in this contest, they gain valuable insights into the strategies, narratives, and battlegrounds that will define the high-stakes 2024 presidential election.
Photo Caption: brookings.edu
