Election Day in only a handful of states may not garner the same attention as the more prominent even-numbered election years, but the results of these headline contests and hundreds of local races will provide crucial insights into the political landscape heading into 2024. These contests will offer a referendum on various critical issues, send early signals about voter enthusiasm, and provide clues about the upcoming battle for control of Congress. Here are five significant questions to keep an eye on during this Election Day:
1. Abortion Rights in Ohio: A Pivotal Test
One of the central issues on the ballot in Ohio is a referendum on abortion rights. This vote will test whether the end of Roe v. Wade remains a potent political force. Last summer, the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe galvanized voters and resulted in a series of wins for Democrats in midterms and special elections. Ohio is the most direct example of this trend, with a proposed constitutional amendment aimed at codifying abortion rights. Democrats in several other states, including Virginia and Pennsylvania, have also made abortion a central campaign issue. The outcome of this vote will shed light on the enduring strength of this issue for Democrats and the electorate’s stance on reproductive rights.
2. Battle for Control of the Virginia Legislature
The tight battle for control of the Virginia legislature will provide early signals about the suburban vote, a critical demographic in recent elections. Abortion has dominated the discussion in Virginia’s legislative races, with Democratic television ads emphasizing the issue significantly more than any other topic. It’s a key test of whether the Democratic focus on abortion resonates with suburban voters. Conversely, Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin, a Republican, has rallied candidates around a 15-week abortion ban with exceptions. This race will show whether Republicans can neutralize the issue and present themselves as the more reasonable option.
3. Gubernatorial Contests in Kentucky and Mississippi
Gubernatorial contests in Kentucky and Mississippi will challenge Democrats’ ability to win in traditionally Republican strongholds, despite President Joe Biden’s declining popularity. Republican candidates have relentlessly linked their Democratic opponents to President Biden, who has faced approval rating challenges. These contests will assess the extent to which national politics are affecting races where President Biden is not directly involved. It will also gauge whether Biden’s approval ratings have a significant impact on these elections or if voters remain open to supporting Democratic candidates despite their concerns about the president.
4. Turnout Among Black Voters
Black voters are a critical part of the Democratic coalition, and their turnout will be pivotal in the 2024 election. Recent elections have shown warning signs for Democrats, with some Black voters opting for Republican candidates in races where they traditionally supported Democrats. Tuesday’s elections will determine whether this trend was an aberration or a cause for concern for Democrats as they approach the 2024 presidential election. The Mississippi governor’s race, in particular, will be significant as it is the first gubernatorial election without a Jim Crow-era system in place, which historically suppressed Black voter influence. Whether Black voters turn out in significant numbers will offer important insights into the broader political climate.
5. Early Voting Trends Among Republicans
The election will also provide a look into whether Republicans have successfully reversed the trend set by former President Trump, who discouraged early voting, both in-person and by mail. Preliminary data suggests that a larger share of Republicans in Virginia is voting early compared to past elections. If this trend continues and expands, it could signify a shift in Republican voter behavior, as Trump’s rhetoric about early voting being prone to fraud seems to have backfired in the past. The “bank your vote” campaign in Pennsylvania, serving as a dry run for 2024, will offer additional insights into early voting trends.
6. Suburban Swing
Suburbs have played a crucial role in elections over the past decade. Many battleground races in Virginia, Kentucky, and other states are taking place in key suburban areas. The suburbs were instrumental in the recent shift away from the Republican Party, but candidates like Governor Glenn Youngkin have made inroads by closing the gap. These suburbs will determine whether Youngkin can maintain control in Virginia and whether Democrats can hold on to power in Kentucky. The outcome will reveal whether suburban voters continue to shape the political landscape.
In conclusion, the results of this “off-year” Election Day in a handful of states will have significant implications for the political landscape heading into the 2024 presidential election. These contests will provide insights into the strength of abortion as an electoral issue, the impact of President Biden’s approval ratings, the turnout among crucial voter demographics, early voting trends among Republicans, and the ongoing importance of suburban voters in shaping electoral outcomes. These results will offer key indicators of the direction of American politics in the coming months, providing crucial information for President Biden and his likely opponent in 2024, former President Donald Trump.
